So much for summer doldrums. Between the Big, Terrible Bill over July 4th, the Alaska Summit, DC takeover, and more, there is a lot going on.

My social media was filled this week with clever Traylor memes and reposts, especially political ones. This one from the AFL-CIO is one of my favorites. Happy Labor Day, thank you unions.

Democrats had a good night on Tuesday, winning a special election in Iowa and breaking the Republican supermajority in the state senate. Catelin Drey won by 10 points in a district Trump won by 11 points. This is the fourth major overperformance by Democrats in Iowa this year. Although it has shifted to the right since Obama won the state in 2012, Democrats have good opportunities to win the Governor’s race (with current state auditor Rob Sand), flip IA-1 and IA-3, and make the US Senate race competitive now that Joni “Everyone will die” Ernst has confirmed she will not run for re-election (more on that below).

As G. Elliot Morris notes (and I highly recommend subscribing to his Substack, Strength in Numbers): “On average in 2025, Democratic candidates in special elections are running about 16 percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris’s margin versus Donald Trump in last year’s presidential election. That is 5-6 points higher than the average Democratic overperformance in 2017.”

Waves start with a ripple. We can all do something.

As a reminder, one of my somethings is the Politic-AL Update on YouTube; please like and subscribe or catch me on Instagram Reels every Friday morning.

Fighting Trump

There has been a lot of pushback to the Trump Administration with protests and lawsuits proving to be the most successful tactics. While there are many, many amazing organizations doing great work, I want to highlight a few at the vanguard.

Democracy Forward (federal), States United (states to federal, states to local), and Public Rights Project (local/municipal, city, county) are leading on litigation efforts. They are coordinating well with each other and with other groups like Public Citizen and National Women’s Law Center. While all are well-funded, their efforts far surpass anticipated budget needs for 2025, filing significantly more lititation and hiring additional attorneys, including former federal agency attorneys who can best aid with Trump Administration lawsuits. The vast majority of this work is c3.

Indivisible has been taking the lead on grassroots organizing, acting as the behind the scenes coordinator for many of the mass mobilizations. They are true good actors in this space and need significant additional funding to keep everything going. This is NOT c3 work; don’t worry about the tax break when fighting authoritarianism!

2025 Update

New Jersey and Virginia have encouraging yet tightening polls (to be expected; don’t freak out). Both races will be expensive and, as we saw last cycle, Republican SuperPACs love to drop in late (in part to catch candidates off guard and in part to hide their donors until the post-election reporting periods). I encourage everyone to support both Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger via WomenCount.

The Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and house of delegate races are also extremely competitive. Join join the Electing Women Alliance, Electing Women National Capital Region (EWNCR), CareGIVERS, EMILYs List, Her Bold Move, Virginia’s List, Vote Mama, WomenCount, and partners on Thursday, September 25 at 7:00pm ET for a Zoom fundraiser in support of the women running in Virginia. RSVP and donate here.

And while all eyes are on Virginia as the traditional off-off-year bellwether, don’t sleep on New Jersey. They love electing Republican Governors (Chris Christie, Christine Todd Whitman, and Tom Kean, to name a few) and NJ moved 16 points to the right between 2020 and 2024. With significant Latino and AAPI communities, this race may indicate whether 2024 trends towards Trump were a fluke or a trend.

US House

Well, if 2024 was Brat Summer, 2025 is Redistricting Summer. It’s way less fun.

Time has a good, easy to understand overview of each state considering redistricting. Democracy Docket has excellent in-depth coverage. And The Down-Ballot has an up-to-the-minute tracker with details on how each state’s process works. I hate that Republicans started this redistricting arms race but here we are and we have to fight back.

Here’s my oversimplified overview:

CA: California is moving ahead with a ballot measure to counter Texas. If the new maps pass this November, Democrats will likely gain 5 seats. Go to stopelectionrigging.com to learn more and to donate. This is all hands on deck; we MUST win. Give what you can and contact me via email for wire or other donation information.
OH: In a complicated legal twist (that pre-dates the CA/TX drama), Ohio is required to redistrict and the general assembly must draw new maps by the end of September. Republicans are expected to further gerrymander the state, putting 1-2 Democratic seats at risk.
TX: Last week, Texas approved their plan which will likely add 4-5 Republican seats.
UT: Just this week, a judge in Utah ruled that the state legislature must redraw lines by September 24 in accordance with a 2018 non-partisan redistricting ballot measure. This may allow Democrats to pick up 1-2 seats.
Maybe +R: FL, IN, MO. President Trump is pressuring reluctant Indiana lawmakers to net one additional seat. Missouri seems on track to redraw and eliminate the Democrat-held Kansas City-based seat. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed interest as well, which could yield 3-5 additional Republican seats.
Maybe +D: IL, MD, NY. Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York has expressed interest in redistricting but the process is complicated and not easily completed ahead of 2026. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has not ruled out new maps that could yield one additional Democratic seat. And Illinois, already heavily gerrymandered for Democrats, could attempt to gain 2-3 additional seats.

Thank you Adam Carlson for this graphic showing the most impacted districts under the new California and Texas plans.

So what does this mean for the balance of power overall?

First off, it is still a very narrow map. Only 18 seats (10D, 8R) are currently rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. We expect that number to grow as the cycle goes on. If Republicans sense a blue wave, there will be more retirements. But, and this is a big but, there are no Democrats in districts where Trump got 55% of the vote or more, nor are there any Republicans in districts where he got 45% of the vote or less. So even a wave in this highly polarized era means a small map; we should not expect to net 42 seats like in 2018. And even if Republicans are able to redistrict in numerous red states, there’s just not that many more seats they can draw; estimates place their gains at 10 seats at best -- making the playing field tough but certainly do-able.

Taking a closer look, there are 46 competitive seats, meaning those not rated Solid Democrat or Solid Republican. If we exclude CA, OH, and TX for now, because of uncertainty around redistricting and who is running where, that drops to 33 seats.

Of those, 12 are Democratic incumbents or protects:

It is crucial to shore up these incumbents early, while redistricting and primaries play out, and take as many as possible off the board.

Give to any or all House incumbents: https://app.oath.vote/donate?p=aladvising-house

There are only two current competitive open seats:

And the 18 races remaining are challengers:

Only 8 of the 33 districts are in states that do not have a competitive top of the ticket race (Senate or Governor; the states without competitive statewides are CO, FL, NJ, NM, VA, and WA), meaning there are a lot of nested races and opportunities to boost candidates up and down the ticket

US Senate

There has been a lot of Senate news since June! While gaining the four seats needed to retake the majority remains a steep climb, it has become a lot more feasible. Again, we have to compete in some longer shot states now and for cycles to come as the big sort makes winning rural states more challenging for Democrats.

GA: The intra-party dynamics in the Republican primary continue to pit President Trump against Gov. Kemp. MAGA Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are competing for Trump’s endorsement while Kemp recruited former (Tennessee) college football coach Derek Dooley. All of this bodes well for incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who continues to rake in cash for his re-election.
IA: Breaking news! Sen. Joni Ernst has confirmed she will not run for re-election; Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is expected to jump in and others will likely run as well. We have FOUR Democratic candidates running to take on Sen. Joni Ernst: Jackie Norris, a long-time activist who serves as Chair of the Des Moines School Board and previously served as Chief of Staff to First Lady Michelle Obama; Nathan Sage, a Marine Corps and Army veteran, radio producer, and head of the Knox Chamber of Commerce; State Rep. Josh Turek, a paralympic basketball player; and State Sen. Zach Wahls, who went viral as a teen for testifying in the state house defending his two moms in the wake of Iowa legalizing gay marriage. All four have compelling stories and could make this a real race.
ME: Maine remains a question mark as Gov. Janet Mills has not yet decided if she will run to challenge Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. Rep. Katie Porter’s former Chief of Staff Jordan Wood and Graham Platner, a Marine and Army veteran and oyster farmer, have announced their candidacies. Platner’s launch video made a big splash, raising him over $1m in a week. Mills indicated she will make a decision by November.
MI: Former Speaker Joe Tate dropped out of this competitive primary, leaving former health care official and activist Abdul El-Sayed, State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens to duke it out for the chance to take on former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
NE: Independent Dan Osborn is running again, this time taking on Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former Governor and billionaire who was appointed to fill the remainder of Sen. Sasso’s term. A midterm electorate and the contrast between the two candidates may help propel Osborn to victory.
NC: In perhaps the biggest recruitment coup of the cycle, popular former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running to flip this now-open seat. He will face former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in the general election. Look for this to be the most high-profile and most expensive race in the country and likely the most expensive race in Senate history.
OH: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown has decided to run again (!) against Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the remainder of now-Vice President JD Vance’s term. Brown lost by three points in 2024, with Trump on the ballot, but won handedly in 2018. He raised an astonishing $3.4m in his first 24 hours after announcing his comeback bid -- and he will need every penny he can raise. Whoever wins must run again in 2028 for a full six-year term.
TX: With so much attention on the Texas redistricting drama, it’s easy to forget about the Senate drama. Establishment Republicans are terrified that Sen. John Cornyn will lose the primary to firebrand and scandal-ridden Attorney General Ken Paxton. A pro-Cornyn SuperPAC has been running ads that appear to have narrowed the gap. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also floating himself as a compromise candidate. Meanwhile, astronaut Terry Virts has announced on the Democratic side along with former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost in 2024 after a lackluster campaign. Rumors are swirling about Rep. Joaquin Castro, who may run for Senate or another statewide office, along with State Rep. James Talarico, one of the leaders of the gerrymandering pushback. Stay tuned.

Give to US Senate candidates without a primary: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ussenate2026

Non-Federal

In 2026, 36 states will hold gubernatorial and other statewide constitutional officer elections. Numerous states will have competitive races for Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. I’ll provide a detailed analysis of non-federal races and an overview of state legislative races in the next WTGN.

Looking Ahead: 2032

Well, The New York Times scared people with their analysis of how population shifts are making the electoral college even tougher for Democrats. The chart below demonstrates that the so-called “blue wall” will not be enough for victory in 2032.

As I outlined in the June WTGN, this stresses the need to expand the map now -- at all levels -- and make serious investments in battleground states like AZ, GA, NV, and NC but also AK, IA, KS, MS, MO, OH, and yes, TX. (On a side note, the NYT also scared people with their story on how Democrats are losing ground in voter registration. This was not remotely surprising to any practitioners or funders of voter registration efforts. We can fix this problem more easily than these big structural issues; we need more funders to step up and with non-c3 dollars.)

I am a huge fan of giving through state donor tables -- coordinated efforts from in-state and out-of-state donors, individual donors, institutional donors, and labor. The tables work with candidates, 501c3s, 501c4s, and other entities on advocacy and electoral activities. The staff know which organizations are doing what and where, identify infrastructure gaps, and coordinate fundraising. This is an effective and efficient way to fund in states without having to do a lot of research; the state teams do that for you. Donor tables exist in 38 states and counting although they often operate under the radar so as not to attract unwanted attention. Email me directly if you want to be connected to a specific state donor table.

And 2028 has begun

I count 24 potential Democratic candidates for the presidency:

Senators: Ruben Gallego (AZ), Mark Kelly, (AZ) Chris Murphy (CT), Raphael Warnock (GA), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Cory Booker (NJ);
Governors: Gavin Newsom (CA), Jared Polis (CO), Josh Green (HI), JB Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshaer (KY), Wes Moore (MD), Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Tim Walz (MN), Phil Murphy (NJ), Josh Shapiro (PA);
Others: former Vice-President Kamala Harris, former Sec. of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, former Sec. of Commerce Gina Raimondo, Rep. Ro Khanna, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, former Rep. and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel;
Outsiders: ESPN Commentator Stephen A. Smith, entrepreneur Mark Cuban, actor and entrepreneur The Rock

This is a good thing! As demonstrated by Govs. Newsom and Pritzker, having Democrats out frontal fighting back, and articulating our values is effective and important. The more prominent voices we can add to the chorus, the better. But we need leaders who are articulating a vision, not just badmouthing the Democratic Party and the past (believe me, I have a lot to say about that too but the average voter has moved on).

The DNC met this week and hopes to set the primary calendar as early as this fall. Look for many more trips to those early states from those listed above -- and who knows? maybe even more.

You May Have Missed It

Gaby Goldstein, the Founder and President of State Futures, is out with a wonderful op-ed in Talking Points Memo: Blue State Dems Are Having an Overdue Reckoning With Their Own Power. Gaby is a co-founder of Sister District and State Futures is her new organization to help legislators govern more effectively. As we saw many blue states dramatically shift to the right in 2024, demonstrating and delivering effective government solutions to big problems, especially in blue states and cities, is one of our best tools for fighting the authoritarian, anti-government forces.

RepresentWomen released their annual gender parity index. Half the country gets a D. Only New Hampshire, Oregon, and Maine get an A. And the Center for American Women in Politics notes that women have achieved near parity with men among Democratic state legislators but are less than a quarter of all Republican state legislators. We have work to do.

Make those annoying texts stop! Here’s a takedown of Mothership, the fundraising firm behind a lot of the spam texts.

Let me know what else you would like to learn more about in the coming months.

Where To Give Now | August 2025