Certain things trigger bad election memories. Songs, phrases, The New York Times needle. In 2024, maps with red arrows showing movement towards Trump in nearly every state and county across the country swamped my social media feeds, further depressing my already depressed mood.

But this year, we have happy blue arrows!

Maps courtesy of The New York Times

Those blue arrows demonstrate the incredible shifts in Democratic support across both New Jersey and Virginia, propelling wins up and down the ballot. Democrats won across the country, from Governor to school board. And women dominated some of the most competitive races.

This was not inevitable. As we all know, the Democratic Party brand isn’t awesome these days. The Pink Wave propelled Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger to victory.

2025 Post-Election Analysis

Topline Take-Aways

The historic breadth and depth of these wins. Turnout and Democratic performance both exceeded 2017, when we saw then-record enthusiasm. According to exit polls, Democrats in both NJ and VA not only turned out voters who don’t always show up in non-presidential years but they also flipped approximately 7% of self-proclaimed 2024 Trump voters. (Obligatory caveat that exit polls, like all polls, are not perfect and we will need a few months for complete voter file information for full analysis.)

Democrats have overperformed in every special election since 2024 by an average of 15%. Spanberger outperformed the outperformance, winning by 15 points, a margin not seen by a Democrat in Virginia since 1961. New Jersey moved further right than any other state in the nation in 2024 yet Sherrill won by 13 points.

Women won sh*t. Sherrill and Spanberger’s wins for Governor were huge in their own right but it was also a great night for women mayors. Mary Sheffield will be the first female mayor of Detroit, Michelle Wu won re-election in Boston, Vi Lyles won re-election in Charlotte, and Dorcey Applyrs won in Albany – all women of color. Hopefully this helps quash the whispers we’ve heard all year around women’s electability, particularly for executive office. Sherrill and Spanberger talk about how they were underestimated in 2018 and underestimated in these races. In your face, bros.

Real life > vibes. Across the country, Democrats from democratic socialist Zohran Mandami to badass mom Abigail Spanberger ran on affordability. They listened to voters and proposed practical policies that will make a real difference in people’s lives. This led to huge gains among Latino voters and young voters, including young men, in both NJ and VA (more below).

Generational not ideological divides. Zohran Mandami, Mikie Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger, Mary Sheffield, and so many of the state legislative candidates we supported were (relatively) younger candidates who brought new energy and ideas to their races. Candidates across the ideological spectrum won. Most were not the typical career politicians; Sherrill and Spanberger both stressed their personal biographies and national security credentials while Mandami talked about being from the new New York. Many Virginia winners were first-time candidates and some including Lindsey Dougherty, Elizabeth Guzman, and Kimberly Pope Adams emphasized their Mom credentials on the campaign trail. We need to run candidates who fit their districts, cities, and states and have real-world experience, relatable stories, and don’t talk like consultant-created robots.

G. Elliott Morris’ Strength in Numbers Substack also has excellent related take-aways worthy of a read.

Deeper Dives

Virginia

Rep. Abigail Spanberger cleared the Democratic primary field in Virginia and was seen as the frontrunner in this election from the beginning. Republicans had high hopes for Winsome Earle-Sears, the sitting Lt. Governor with a compelling biography, but her campaign never took off and Republicans all but divested from this race by the end.

While Democrats would have had a good night even without the DOGE cuts and government shutdown, those factors definitely impacted the margin. Turnout in some counties even exceeded 2024 levels. Exit polls show 69% of youth supported Spanberger and youth turnout increased by seven points, likely providing the margin of victory for several house of delegate seats.

Spanberger’s stunning 15-point margin, along with Lt. Governor Ghazala Hashmi’s impressive 11-point victory certainly helped propel down-ballot candidates as well, including beleaguered Attorney General candidate Jay Jones. Democrats flipped 13 seats in the house of delegates, 10 by women candidates, for a 64-seat majority. There are now more female Democrats (64D, 37D women) in the Virginia House of Delegates than there are Republicans (36R, 7R women).

Democrats will also have a governing trifecta, with huge implications for democracy and abortion rights. Many national Democrats worried about backlash to Virginia’s last-minute push for redistricting; by law, maps needed to be passed in two sessions with an election in between. Democrats went back into session just a few weeks ago to pass new maps and saw tremendous momentum for redistricting among voters; some pundits even credit the redistricting fight with saving Jones’ candidacy. This may help provide a backbone for Democrats in other states.

Virginia will also likely now have a ballot measure codifying abortion rights on the ballot in 2026; had Democrats not retained their majority in the house of delegates, they would not have the requisite votes to pass the measure again in the 2026 session to move to the November ballot. As the last state in the South with abortion access, this will impact millions of people.

New Jersey

In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill won a competitive six-way primary where she was outspent by multiple opponents; she won handedly and squashed nay-sayers who said Democrats couldn’t win a historic third term.

Although polling showed the race tightening heading into the fall, Sherrill was leading by 7-8 points in the final weeks and came out on top with a commanding 13 point victory, outperforming Kamala Harris by five points and tying Joe Biden’s 2020 and Phil Murphy’s 2017 margins.

Notably, she flipped back five key counties Kamala Harris lost in 2024 including the three most heavily Latino counties and suburban bellwethers: Passaic County, which is 41% Latino, shifted 18 points; Cumberland County shifted seven points; and Hudson County, Sherrill won by 50 points, massively overperforming Harris’ 28-point margin. Turnout was a massive 20 points higher than 2021 and youth turnout also surged nine points across the state with 69% of young voters supporting Sherrill.

Sherrill’s performance helped Democrats net an additional three seats in the state assembly for a veto-proof, 57-seat margin, the largest majority in 52 years.

Elsewhere

California: Voters passed Prop. 50 by a remarkable 64%, allowing Democrats to go on offense in the redistricting fight.
Georgia: Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard won seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, becoming the first Democrats to win non-federal races there in 20 years. This is huge for Democrats in 2026 when Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for re-election and we have open seats for Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State.
Maine: Voters rejected a ballot measure that would have limited early voting and required photo ID to vote and passed a red flag gun safety measure.
Minnesota: Democrats won a special election in the state Senate to hold onto a one-seat majority.
Mississippi: Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the state Senate.
New York: Zohran Mandami won a historic election as Mayor of New York City. Democrats retained the mayoralies of other major cities including Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester, with all candidates securing over 70% of the vote.
Texas: Amanda Edwards advanced to the runoff for the special election in the 18th congressional district. Support Amanda’s campaign here.
Pennsylvania: Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht were retained, securing a progressive majority on the crucial Pennsylvania state supreme court through 2032. This bodes well for election challenges along with protecting abortion rights. Democrats also flipped a number of swing city and county elections with implications for 2026 and 2028 races.

So What Does This Mean?

First off, Democrats have their mojo back. We, as activists and donors, needed a shot in the arm (and go get your flu and COVID vaccines!) and our elected leaders needed one, too. I took the same lesson from 2025 as I did in 2024 -- and I posted this on Tuesday night.

Try. Care. Show up. Fight. This is what Mandami and Sherrill and Spanberger all have in common. It’s also what leaders like Sens. Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders, Elissa Slotkin, Reps. Jasmine Crokett, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and Eric Swalwell, and Govs. Maura Healey, Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker know. (It’s also what Marjorie Taylor Greene has now learned. Weird. Welcome to the Resistance?)

As one of my mentors, Paul Rivera told me over and over, “It’s not rocket science, it’s political science.” We have to go back to basics. Here’s how we do it.

If you care about…

Economic messaging and winning back working class voters: Winning Jobs Narrative, an effort to listen to working-class voters who are frustrated and disconnected -- not because they don’t care about politics, but because they no longer see their hard work leading to stability, dignity, or opportunity. And they’re right! Since 2021, through over 300,000 interviews with voters, WJN has created a policy and messaging framework that works for progressive and moderates, urban and rural, statewide and local candidates to help rebuild faith in the possibility of a government and economy that works for everyone.

Holding Republicans accountable and softening the ground to win in 2026: The Hub Project. Never heard of them? That’s on purpose! They are a behind the scenes umbrella organization responsible for a lot of the federal accountability work you have seen cycle after cycle, just with a bunch of different names (dark money helps our side too). They also run the Navigator poll briefings, Americans Against Government Censorship, and many other efforts. Contact Kate Stoner for more information, kate.stoner@thehubproject.org.

Supporting better candidates who better reflect their communities: Run for Something and Pipeline Fund are doing amazing work nationally and in the states. These organizations and many, many more help recruit and train diverse -- in every sense of the word -- candidates.

Keeping the momentum going with Latino voters: Equis Research helps us understand Latino voters and how to communicate with sub-populations about issues they care about while Somos Votantes is the gold standard for year-round organizing, advocacy, and turnout in key states.

Keeping the momentum going with young voters: The Alliance for Youth Action has a multi-cycle plan to build power for young people in key states. The Student Turnout Project at Strategic Victory Fund is another great effort. Email Teddy Landis for more information, Teddy@thesvf.org.

Expanding the map, particularly long-term plays in the South, Rural West, and Appalachia: Regional States Initiative. This new organization grew out of the highly successful work done over several cycles by the Rural West Project. If we want to win more elections, we need to try in more places. And we need to win locally in red states and grow a talent pipeline for long-term gains. This is also a behind the scenes umbrella effort that will take on many names and entities to coordinate work across numerous states. Email Evan Kost for more information, evan.kost@contoursinc.org.

2026 Elections

There are a few other things we can learn from 2025 to inform 2026.

First, Republicans do not and will not play by the rules. From redistricting shenanigans (more below) to sending in Department of Justice observers for non-federal elections to false claims of rigged elections (again), bad actors on their side simply ignore norms, rules, and even laws to win. The 2025 elections were smooth and well-run (the only major nefarious event was a series of bomb threats at polling places in NJ and election officials had a plan for that and handled it well). From states with heavy early voting (NY and VA) to mail-in voting (CA) to states where the vast majority of voters vote on Election Day (NJ), local election officials stepped up and voters had a good experience. Bolts Magazine has a great overview of the pro-voter impact of the 2025 elections.

But we can be sure anti-democracy forces are planning for 2026. Luckily, we are as well. The Resilient Elections Network, anchored by the Center for Tech & Civic Life, has been working with election administrators from Secretaries of State to local county clerks for years. Their work has never been more important as we head into 2026 and 2028.

This also got me thinking about democracy as a messaging frame. We have tried and largely failed in recent years to get “normies” to understand the threats to democracy and prioritize them as an issue when voting. This is obviously a hard argument to make when people are stressed about meeting their basic needs. But I wonder if there’s a broader narrative around the rule of law that can encompass everything from democracy to the blatant corruption throughout the Administration to immigration to public safety. Food for thought for the collective we to mull over.

US Senate

I love this headline and story from The Bulwark.

It’s the “suddenly” that really gets me though. As loyal readers will know, expanding the Senate map is something I have been proselytizing since 2019.

I am hopeful that the powers that be finally realize the Senate is in play. Don’t get me wrong. It’s still a tall order. Democrats need to: hold Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia; keep the open seat in Michigan (three-way primary); flip Maine (three-way primary); flip North Carolina (with former Gov. Roy Cooper); and then win at least two out of five in Ohio (with former Sen. Sherrod Brown), Alaska (if former Rep. Mary Peltola runs), Nebraska (with independent Dan Osborn), Iowa (three-way primary), and Texas (if Ken Paxton wins the Republican primary; two-way, maybe three-way primary).

That’s the electoral equivalent of an inside straight. But we have to try. Nate Silver notes in his recent Substack Q&A that after the margins in NJ and VA last week, he expects at least a D+7 environment for the midterms and G. Elliott Morris thinks it will be +8. That puts all of our longer-shot races within the margin of possible.

Redistricting and US House

The redistricting landscape changes seemingly by the day. I highly recommend signing up for regular updates from Cathy Duvall for Fair Representation in Redistricting (usually once a month, a little more frequently these days with so much news); email ckduvall@gmail.com to join. FRR has been leading this work for over a decade, provisioning c3 and c4 analysis, guidance, and information on funding gaps.

On Tuesday, Prop. 50 passed in California by a huge 64-26% margin. This allows CA to change their maps and counter Texas’ gerrymander. Democrats are expected to pick up at least five seats and shores up several other swing Democratic seats.

In more good news, Ohio passed a compromise map that will make OH-1 (Greg Landsman) and OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur) more Republican while making OH-13 (Emilia Sykes) more Democratic. Behind the scenes lobbying helped Kansas legislators find their spine as they declined to move forward with redistricting. Missouri is forging ahead with a citizen-led initiative to overturn their new maps. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has created a commission to look at new maps there. And Virginia will move forward with new maps in their session next year.

But the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais and the future of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act also looms large. The ruling and timing of this decision may trigger another round of redistricting in the Deep South, potentially eliminating another 3-5 majority-Black and Democratic-hed seats.

I also want to flag this Punchbowl analysis from Virginia: “Democrats didn’t flip any seats that Trump won by more than five points…In Congress, there are only three Republicans in Harris-won seats. And there are only a dozen or so GOP-held House seats that Trump won by five points or less, thanks to redistricting. That number is growing smaller thanks to the mid-decade round of remaps.”

If we have a D+7-8 environment, all 14 Toss-up seats are in play, plus an additional 15 that are currently Lean or Likely Republican (according to Cook Political Report ratings and their PVI data). The graph below outlines potential shifts due to redistricting. If the most pessimistic take is R+6, and then another +5 if the VRA is overturned, a playing field of 29 competitive seats is more than enough for Democrats to make up the deficit from gerrymandering and take back the House. But while we need to expand the map of possibility, we will need to make hard decisions come the summer and fall about which districts are realistically in play.

I would also be remiss in any discussion of the House of Representatives if I did not acknowledge the announcement that Speaker Emereta Nancy Pelosi will be retiring at the end of this term. No one has done more to help elect Democrats to the House and to demonstrate what badass, strategic leadership looks like. Thank you, Madam Speaker.

What Else?

Two groups put out their post-2024 election overviews recently. I am a big fan of both Welcome PAC and Strategic Victory Fund. (Again, we are a big tent; different kinds of candidates will win in different districts and states and that’s a good thing.) Welcome’s report is called Deciding to Win and SVF’s is called Project Enduring Majority. They come to some similar conclusions and I encourage you to read both for yourself.

It appears that the government shutdown is coming to an end. I am annoyed, to say the least, that a handful of Democrats appear to have cut a “deal” that gets us the promise of a vote on ACA subsidies and nothing more. I understand that it looked unlikely that Republicans would make a better deal and that people are being hurt every day by the shutdown. I just don’t see why this deal was made now other than, “Well, it’s been 40 days and we should try to look bipartisan.” In fact, Democrats had momentum on their side with Tuesday’s victories, polling showing more voters blaming Republicans, recent court rulings on SNAP funding, and the looming Thanksgiving travel season. The Democratic backlash -- from activists to donors to their own colleagues -- is growing. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, one of the eight Senators to support the deal (along with Sens. Cortez Masto, Durbin, Fetterman, Hassan, Kaine, King, and Rosen), was even criticized by her daughter, who is running for the US House from New Hampshire. With such a narrow margin in the House, this deal ain’t done. Use your voice and let your elected leaders know what you think.

Even without the shutdown’s effects, millions of Americans go hungry every day. You can find a local food bank via Feeding America. And help fight the systemic root causes of hunger with No Kid Hungry (one of my favorite former clients and one of the most impactful organizations I have ever worked with).

More to come ahead of Giving Tuesday.

Where To Give Now | Nov 10, 2025