Where To Give Now | June 2025
Happy June. I hope everyone is taking some time this month to celebrate Pride & Juneteenth. We need all the joy we can get.
This weekend demonstrated the stark contrast between the politics of authoritarianism and the politics of the people. We saw our own government send troops to Los Angeles to quell peaceful protests, a United States Senator wrestled to the ground and handcuffed, and our military used as a prop for a birthday parade. And we saw political violence take the life of a beloved state legislator, as the assassin targeted other politicians and abortion rights advocates. But we also saw millions of people peacefully take to the streets to say, No Kings! and denounce the current administration.
My heart breaks over the deaths of Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark and the targeting of other elected officials including Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvonne. There are numerous organizations combating political violence nationally and in the states via the Courage Calls Us campaign; request the menu of organizations to support here. And the Democracy Security Project has excellent resources for activists, donors, organizations, and more.
Waves start with a ripple. We can all do something.
On that (much lighter) note, as my nine-year-old proudly declares, “My Mom is a YouTuber!” A few weeks ago, I started creating weekly 5-10 minute videos with the political news of the week. As PoliticAL, my tagline is, I pay attention so you don’t have to. YouTube has approximately 253 million users, acting as both a streaming and social media platform, and is now the top source for podcasts (with more people watching rather than just listening to podcasts). Conservative content still vastly outpaces progressive content by a 2:1 margin, according to a recent study by Media Matters. So I decided to do my part.
Please like and subscribe to the Politic-AL Update on YouTube or catch me on Instagram Reels every Friday morning.
Finally, Social Goods and Katie Grossbard have partnered on a collection featuring AOC’s recent quote, “I will not yield to disrespectful men.” All proceeds benefit WomenCount, a giving platform for Democratic women used by Electing Women Alliance and others, so shop away!
2025
Now that the fields are set in New Jersey and Virginia, I encourage you to support both Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger via WomenCount. While I feel good about Democrats’ chances in both races, they will be tough and expensive.
The Cook Political Report’s state analysis of partisan voting index, or PVI, compares data across states to determine how Democratic or Republican a state votes vis a vis the national average. New Jersey ranks +4, tied with Maine and New Mexico, and just one point ahead of blue states like Virginia and Minnesota (+5). New Jersey loves electing Republican Governors (see: Chris Christie, Christine Todd Whitman, and Tom Kean). Trump endorsed Jack Ciatterelli in the primary and has made it clear he intends to go all in to elect a Republican to oversee his secondary residence in Bedminster, NJ. And with all eyes on Virginia as the traditional midterm bellwether, Trump, his cronies, and outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin will stop at nothing -- and spend anything -- to keep the Governor’s mansion. Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears has MAGA views without the labels; Democrats need resources to tie her to Trump’s disastrous DOGE cuts, which have had an outsized impact on Virginia, and other failed policies.
More to come on downballot races in both states.
2026 overview
There are 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats up for re-election; Democrats Dick Durbin (IL), Gary Peters (MI), and Tina Smith (MN) announced their retirements, creating three competitive open seats, and Republicans have two special elections in FL and OH due to Cabinet appointments. Democrats tried, unsuccessfully, in 2020 to win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina; six years later, candidate recruitment will be crucial in making these states competitive. Democrat Jon Ossoff of Georgia is the most endangered incumbent of either party.
Keep in mind, the Senate map is also tough in 2028. That’s why we must expand beyond the seven battleground states and look at states like Alaska, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio. I encourage you to read recent pieces by Split Ticket, Slow Boring, The Washington Post, and The Bulwark to learn more about why and how we expand the map.
Expanding the map is also critical for the electoral college map; the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will lose population in the 2030 census and we will need to add at least one additional state to win 270 votes. We should be expanding the House map now and through 2030, particularly in high-grow states in the South and Southwest.
And taking back the House in 2026 is not a given -- especially with rumors that President Trump is urging Texas to further gerrymander their districts ahead of the midterms. Republicans hold the smallest majority since 1932 and Democrats have been overperforming in special elections. But it is worth noting that there are no Democrats in districts where Trump got 55% of the vote or more, nor are there any Republicans in districts where he got 45% of the vote or less. Meaning, the map is very narrow. But if Republicans sense a blue wave, there may be additional retirements and open seat opportunities.
As we wait for more clarity on many challenger and open seat races, there are numerous House incumbents who need early support. This slate does not include a few Frontline Democrats who have taken more problematic votes; I leave it up to you to decide whether to support them. My feeling is endangered incumbents generally have all the funding they need from the national party committees and I want to support and reward the braver ones. Supporting incumbents early also helps take some races off the map entirely, allowing us to focus more on pick-up opportunities later in the cycle.
I have partnered with Oath, a giving platform, to create a slate of House incumbents including:
Adam Gray, CA-13
Derek Tran, CA-45
Kristen McDonald Rivet, MI-08
Marcy Kaptur, OH-09
Emilia Sykes, OH-13
Nellie Pou, NJ-09
Gabe Vasquez, NM-02
Laura Gillen, NY-04
Susie Lee, NV-03
Janelle Bynum, OR-05
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, WA-03
Give to any or all House incumbents: https://app.oath.vote/donate?p=aladvising-house
And there are some non-incumbents I am actively supporting in competitive primaries.
Julianna Stratton, IL Senate. I am disappointed that Gov. JD Pritzker elbowed Rep. Lauren Underwood out of this competitive primary but his chosen candidate, Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, will be an excellent US Senator.
Mallory McMorrow, MI Senate. Mallory is a once in a generation political talent. While I like Rep. Haley Stevens and will happily support her if she wins the primary, I am all in for Mallory in the primary. DC insiders support Stevens but people who know Mallory know not to underestimate her.
Peggy Flanagan, MN Senate. Similarly, I am all in for the amazing Peggy Flanagan, the current Lt. Gov. Peggy is a fighter who would bring a unique voice as the first indigenous woman elected to the Senate.
Denise Powell, NE-2. I have gotten to work with Denise over the last few years through her work with Women Who Run. She is a dynamic candidate who can (finally!) help flip this crucial seat.
Beth Davidson, NY-17. This is my home district and Beth is a smart, qualified state legislator from my hometown. Her experience stands out in the six-way primary to take on Rep. Mike Lawler, one of the most endangered Republican incumbents.
Give to any or all on my non-incumbent slate: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2026nonincumbents
More candidates will be added to the non-incumbent slate in coming weeks and months.
Governors
In 2026, 36 states will hold gubernatorial and other statewide constitutional officer elections. Of those, 16 current Governors are term-limited. As we have seen in recent months, states are the primary pushback against the Trump regime. Winning races for Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State is more critical than ever (as are state legislatures -- a lot more on that in coming months as those chambers and races become more clear).
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has the toughest re-election match, by far, but we cannot sleep on Kathy Hochul in NY, Tina Kotek in OR, and Josh Shapiro in PA; Govs. Tim Walz (MN) and Tony Evers (WI) are expected to run for third terms but have not yet declared. California, Colorado, Manie, and New Mexico feature competitive Democratic primaries but are considered Lean or Likely Democrat. Michigan is the lone purple open seat gubernatorial contest; Democrat Jocelyn Benson is the frontrunner in the Democratic field and Rep. John James is likely to lead the Republican primary but former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s bid as an independent will complicate the general election dynamics.
Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio are our best open seat flip opportunities and Nevada is a chance to defeat a Republican incumbent.
I will go into more detail on Governors and other statewide races as well as state legislative races in key states in coming months.
You May Have Missed It
Want to know which voters switched parties and which stayed home? Which demographic groups moved left or right? Check out Catalist’s 2024 What Happened Report. Read Tech for Campaigns Digital Ads report and VoteForward’s report on letter writing campaigns for more on what we need to do to improve communications with voters. The Atlantic also has a new piece on the disconnect between the Harris campaign and Democratic SuperPAC Future Forward: Inside the Democratic Rupture That Undermined Kamala Harris’s Presidential Hopes.
From our friends at Way to Win: Democrats tested immigration messaging in battleground districts. Here’s what they found. And from Rutgers’ Center for American Women and Politics: Progress Toward Gender Parity Stalled in Election 2024. But There’s More to the Story.
Let me know what else I should do a deep dive on in the coming months!