The presidential election is a toss-up. The US Senate map is hard. Control of the US House is a toss-up. I put the chances of a Democratic trifecta at 15%, a Republican trifecta at 25%, and divided government at 60%.
The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on June 27 and, yes, it could change everything. Joe Biden is known to be a game-day performer (see: State of the Union); will that Joe Biden show up? Will he be seen as robust and capable by the 2020 voters who are now doubters? Donald Trump is known for pulling stunts and ignoring the rules. Can moderators keep him in line? Can Biden get under Trump’s skin and set him off? Neither man has debated for four years; what impact will that have? There are so many unknowns (will Trump actually show up?) but we know it will be a momentous event. While the debate could change everything, it likely will not. This race has been remarkably stable. Even Trump being convicted of 34 felonies hasn’t moved the needle much (yet).
I am very nervous.
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The general election starts today. There are 286 days until Election Day (and many states start voting 30 or even 45 days before -- you go, Virginia!) This WILL be a Biden-Trump rematch, barring a major medical event. Superdelegates won’t swap out Biden for a different nominee and Nikki Haley has no path forward. We need to help our friends and family understand this binary choice and the consequences of staying home or voting third party. You are who they look to for advice -- post on social media and pass on positive news (you don’t need to debunk every conspiracy theory or get into debates but getting good stuff out there helps).
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Hi friends. It’s been a while! I hope your 2023 is off to a good start, now that we’re more than halfway through. Fall is on my mind, with Labor Day, back to school, and leaves starting to change (in the mountains, at least; it’s still in the 90’s in Denver). And with Fall comes elections! Below I will discuss what to watch in the few elections this November and preview 2024.
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I thought this was a really excellent article from Inside Philanthropy about the types of philanthropic LLCs and how transparent they are. So many new vehicles have popped up and this does a great job explaining the trade-offs.
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Our ELECTION TRACKER is here. We list the most competitive races and ballot measures by poll closing times. We also note when to expect results from specific states and which states will trend red or blue as votes get counted (ie, the red or blue mirage). Just click print or download to take it with you on Election Night! You can also view our entire candidate tracking database here.
The Washington Post and The New York Times have additional information on when and how votes will be counted. Once again, Daily Kos put out their famous poll closing times map along with a list of key races to watch.
If you are not on Twitter, Election Night is the reason to join and lurk. You can follow my Election Data Dorks list for outlets and prognosticators who follow and call races. The National Association of Secretaries of State also has a list of Chief Election Officials for links and live results. The AP Politics feed and, of course, Dave Wasserman’s famous “I’ve seen enough” tweets often call races before other outlets.
I change my mind every 15 minutes about whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about the election. The bottom line is, we don’t know anything. We don’t know if turnout models are accurate and if there will be a MAGA surge or a youth surge. We don’t know what Latino turnout and vote preference will look like in Florida, South Texas, the Southwest, and more. We don’t know if post-Dobbs momentum will continue or if gas prices will spike again. We don’t know what the strong early vote numbers portend or if polls are accurate. Basically, if a race is consistently within five points, assume it’s in play and leave it all out on the field.
Scroll to the end for my Election Night watch list (key races by poll closing times) and other resources to dork out. And you can access my key races tracking database here.
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