Where To Give Now: January 2024
The general election starts today. There are 286 days until Election Day (and many states start voting 30 or even 45 days before -- you go, Virginia!) This WILL be a Biden-Trump rematch, barring a major medical event. Superdelegates won’t swap out Biden for a different nominee and Nikki Haley has no path forward. We need to help our friends and family understand this binary choice and the consequences of staying home or voting third party. You are who they look to for advice -- post on social media and pass on positive news (you don’t need to debunk every conspiracy theory or get into debates but getting good stuff out there helps).
I am also thinking about the odds for a potential Democratic trifecta (20%?) and a potential Republican trifecta (30%?). I think the odds are better than 50% that Democrats will take the House but we need to expand the map beyond CA and NY (more on that in a future memo). I think the odds of keeping the Senate are around 20%. And the presidential is a true toss-up. Really. Let’s get to work.
Presidential: Known Unknowns, ie things that keep me up at night
The list of things that keeps me up at night is long (Did I send in that vaccine form for camp registration? Is the cat inside?) but the 2024 election certainly tops the list. Here are a few -- but don’t despair, some have solutions in the works.
Israel-Hamas and the prospect of a prolonged and expanded war in the Middle East. There are no words to describe the humanitarian toll. But from a political perspective, this is very bad for Biden. Democrats are divided, with schisms among both Muslim and Jewish Americans, both of whom tend to support Democrats. It also leads to a broader feeling of unease (I’ve heard multiple Trump voters quip, “We didn’t have any wars under Trump!”) and we don’t have a great track record on wars in the Middle East. No easy solutions here.
The war in Ukraine. Russia has the money and means to wait out our election cycle and Putin will do everything he can to ensure another Trump presidency. Along with general unease, oil production and gas prices could once again come into play at home. Congress needs to pass the Ukraine aid package as soon as possible.
Attitudes about the economy. Inflation has been coming down, perhaps as most evidenced by gas prices. Voters are starting to feel more optimistic about their own economic situation, which is generally a precursor to optimism about the economy overall. But there are many factors at play here (see above).
Domestic and international disinformation. Russia, China, Iran, and other rogue actors are already seeding distrust among Americans (see: divisions over Israel-Hamas; you think all of those social media posts just happen?). Just this week, a robo call went out to New Hampshire voters with a deep fake of Joe Biden voice telling Democrats to stay home. We can’t begin to understand the implications of the first Artificial Intelligence election. Luckily, there are experts working on this at all levels; from the State Department to the Disinformation Table (a network of progressive organizations) to tech companies and independent monitors, people are aware of these issues and working to mute their impact.
Will abortion be enough? If you had asked me two years ago if abortion would be a leading motivator in the election, I would have laughed. But we have seen, with ballot measures, the 2022 midterms, and the 2023 elections, that abortion is motivating voters, particularly women and young people. But we also know Republicans from Trump on down are trying to muddy the waters. I am heartened by the Biden-Harris (especially Harris) Administration’s embrace of this issue but we shouldn’t count on just abortion to save us. A comprehensive women’s agenda that also resources efforts to engage women, however, could; more on that soon -- this we can solve.
Disaffected voters. I am very, very worried about young voters. Many of you know I spent most of my career in the youth vote world. There’s always a sky is falling narrative around young voters. But young people were critical to wins in 2020 and 2022 and this time around, they are simply not motivated. This is also something we can (partly) solve and there is a well-coordinated effort to do so. These efforts also need to over-index younger men of color who have been less reliable Democratic voters. We need more than a few TikTok videos though. We need deep and meaningful engagement and we need to start now.
So, that’s where my brain is right now. We need to remind voters of the stark choice and what’s at stake. We need to volunteer, whether informally by talking to our networks or by phone banking, writing letters, or door knocking. And we need to donate. Yes, your money goes further down-ballot. But this is an existential election and we simply must win. It takes a lot of money to build a campaign and we should all give what we can.
Give to Biden-Harris here: https://secure.joebiden.com/a/bvf?attr=113616020#!
More to come on other ways to support efforts to register and mobilize voters.
US Senate
As I mentioned above, the odds of Democrats keeping the Senate are low but definitely not impossible. We know we will lose West Virginia with Sen. Manchin’s retirement but we can win Montana and Ohio as Sens. Tester and Brown have a history of winning over Republican ticket-splitters in the past. Momentum (and voter IDs) from the successful abortion ballot measure in Ohio in 2022 will help Brown and an abortion ballot measure will likely be on the ballot in Montana. Both states also have critical down-ballot races.
Most Endangered Incumbents:
Tammy Baldwin (WI), Lean D
Sherred Brown (OH), Toss-up
Bob Casey (PA), Lean D
Jacky Rosen (NV), Lean D
Jon Tester (MT), Toss-up
Elissa Slotkin is the frontrunner in the open race in Michigan. The Republican race (along with the state Republican Party) is a mess with eight candidates and counting. But as a presidential, US House, and state legislative target state, Republicans will turnout no matter who is on the ballot.
A word about Arizona: I am for electing women but there’s an exception to every rule and Kyrsten Sinema is the exception. Ruben Gallego has a compelling personal story, a stellar record, and will be a great Senator.
I also think Florida could come into play. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is an engaging candidate and if the abortion rights ballot measure does make it onto the ballot, it could shake up that race. Texas is tougher but Colin Allred is a terrific candidate.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/senate2024
US House
I have a truncated list from a previous memo here. Lots more to come on US House races. But please give to Tom Suozzi in NY-3, ahead of the special election on 2/13 to replace George Santos!
Critical incumbents (current toss-ups and lean Democrat) include:
Mary Peltola (AK-AL)
Jahana Hayes (CT-5)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-8)
Frank Mrvan (IL-1)
Jared Golden (ME-2)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
Andrea Salinas (OR-6)
Susan Wild (PA-7)
Matt Cartwright (PA-8)
Chris Deluzio (PA-17)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ushouse2024
Governor
Very few states hold gubernatorial and other constitutional office elections in presidential election years but three open seats are shaping up to be competitive.
North Carolina: Incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is term-limited. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) has cleared the field and will face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson or former Rep. Mark Walker, both extreme MAGA candidates.
New Hampshire: Gov. John Sununu (R) declined to run for another term giving Democrats a chance to flip this swing state. Democrats include Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington; former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state senate President Chuck Morse have announced on the Republican side.
Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is not running again; Attorney General Bob Ferguson is the Democratic frontrunner. This is a top two primary and normally two Democrats would face off but former Rep. Dave Reichert has announced and is seen as a formidable Republican candidate.
Give to Josh Stein here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2024govs
What else?
Finally, stay sane. This will be a long slog and the other side wants us to be disheartened and exhausted. Try not to watch cable news. Consume political news only when you want to. I read a lot of news tipsheets (like Politico and Axios) daily and I listen to a ton of podcasts. This allows me to take a step back and think about events rather than react in the moment. If you want a run down on everything, take a look at What I Consume (and no, I don’t read or listen to all of it every day or week and I skim a lot; but lots of sources of information is helpful).
I also read a lot of books. Spy novels, historical fiction, chick lit but also a lot of non-fiction (not before bed). I highly recommend Rachel Maddow’s Prequel for a historical analogy to current events (and her related podcast, Ultra).
Coming soon:
Other ways to support the presidential election and down-ballot races
12th Amendment strategy for the US House
Abortion on the ballot
What else do you want to know about?