Where to Give Now: September 2023
Hi friends. It’s been a while! I hope your 2023 is off to a good start, now that we’re more than halfway through. Fall is on my mind, with Labor Day, back to school, and leaves starting to change (in the mountains, at least; it’s still in the 90’s in Denver). And with Fall comes elections! Below I will discuss what to watch in the few elections this November and preview 2024.
2023 to Watch
The big candidate race: Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Remember how we all paid attention and gave money and maybe even made phone calls for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race this spring? Time to do it again! Democrat Daniel McCaffery faces Republican Carolyn Carluccio to fill a vacancy left by the death of Democrat Max Baer in 2022. While the outcome of this race will not change the balance of the court, three Democrats are up in 2025 and we need an insurance policy as justices serve 10-year terms. There are no donation limits in this race. PA Alliance Action (c4) is coordinating coalition efforts.
The big ballot measure: O-H-I-O! As you likely heard, Republicans tried to change the rules to prevent a ballot measure to affirm abortion rights from winning in November. We won the first round -- and by 14 points! -- and now it’s time to mobilize again. This is not a slam dunk; the ballot language is quite challenging and each side is expected to spend at least $35 million communicating with voters. We simply can not afford to lose -- not for the people of Ohio and not for the momentum in this fight. Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights (OURR) is the coalition effort to codify abortion rights in the Ohio constitution.
If you are interested in making larger or non-online donations to either effort, just let me know. I am happy to connect you to either team.
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi: These three Southern states hold off-off-year elections for Governor and other statewide offices. In Kentucky, incumbent Andy Beshear (D) faces Daniel Cameron (R). Beshear is very popular despite this state’s deep red lean in federal races. In Mississippi, Brandon Presley (D) is seeking to unseat the scandal-ridden Tate Reeves. He faces an uphill climb but this is the first popular-vote election since Reconstruction in the most heavily African-American state in the country. Greta Kemp Martin is running for Attorney General against Lynn Fitch, aka the woman who brought the Dobbs lawsuit. The Louisiana races are not seen as competitive with incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) term-limited.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/key2023
It is also critical that we hold the Virginia State Senate (D +4 seats) and win back the House of Delegates (R +3 seats) to prevent a Republican trifecta. Gov. Glenn Youngkin is aiming to turn a blue state back to red and will certainly attempt to roll back abortion rights in the state if he wins.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/va2023targets
US Senate
The 2024 cycle is largely defensive, with three incumbents in red states, three* in purple states, a purple open seat, and a few races on the radar.
Most Endangered Incumbents:
Tammy Baldwin (WI), Lean D
Sherred Brown (OH), Toss-up
Bob Casey (PA), Lean D
Joe Manchin (WV), Toss-up
Jacky Rosen (NV), Lean D
Jon Tester (MT), Toss-up
While Sens. Brown, Manchin, and Tester are getting a ton of attention, we cannot take the other three races for granted; in particular, Nevada was the closest US Senate race last year and this is Sen. Rosen’s first re-election campaign.
Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) officially registered as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats; Rep. Ruben Gallego is a strong Democratic challenger. Multiple Republicans are expected to run, including failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. While Sinema has not announced her intentions, she is expected to run and is actively fundraising, setting up a three-way race.
In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is seen as the front-runner but there are several other candidates, including three African-American candidates, also running. The primary is not until August 6, 2024 but Republicans have yet to recruit a strong candidate, making this a Lean Democrat race.
The best pick-up opportunities for Democrats are in Florida and Texas but both states have been stubbornly hard for Democrats in prior cycles. Rep. Colin Allred (D) is taking on Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas and former Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D) recently announced against Sen. Rick Scott; both incumbents are deeply unpopular with Democrats and also face net disapproval ratings among independent voters.
US House
There are several critical incumbents who need early funding in 2023. Shoring up these races early can help take districts off the map, giving us more resources for challenger and open seat races. Note that I am not recommending candidates in Ohio or North Carolina at this time, as both are expected to redistrict ahead of the 2024 elections. Additional toss-up and lean races will be in future memos, as primaries are held and races shake out. For now, protecting these incumbents is the top priority if we are to take back the House next year.
Critical incumbents (current toss-ups and lean Democrat) include:
Mary Peltola (AK-AL)
Jahana Hayes (CT-5)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-8)
Frank Mrvan (IL-1)
Sharice Davids (KS-3)
Jared Golden (ME-2)
Gabe Vasquex (NM-2)
Pat Ryan (NY-18)
Andrea Salinas (OR-6)
Susan Wild (PA-7)
Matt Cartwright (PA-8)
Chris Deluzio (PA-17)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ushouse2024
Governor
Very few states hold gubernatorial and other constitutional office elections in presidential election years but three open seats are shaping up to be competitive.
North Carolina: Incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is term-limited. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) has cleared the field and will face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson or former Rep. Mark Walker (R), both extreme MAGA candidates.
New Hampshire: Gov. John Sununu (R) declined to run for another term giving Democrats a chance to flip this swing state. Democrats include Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington; former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state senate President Chuck Morse have announced on the Republican side.
Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is not running again and Democrats Hilary Franz, who serves as Commissioner of Public Lands, Attorney General Bob Ferguson, and state senator Mark Mullet have announced. This is a top two primary and normally two Democrats would face off but former Rep. Dave Reichert has announced and is seen as a formidable Republican candidate.
I’ll have a lot more on down-ballot races in future editions.
Abortion Ballot Measures
As I mentioned above, Ohio is the top priority for 2023 but numerous other states have efforts underway for 2024. In Arizona and Florida, coalitions have started circulating petitions for constitutional amendments to enshrine the right to abortion. Both are extremely expensive states and need robust early funding to be successful. Colorado and Maryland will go to the ballot with proactive measures and numerous other states including Oregon, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and others are exploring potential measures. We do not yet know what the defensive landscape will look like as many states will hold legislative sessions next year and we anticipate many anti-abortion states will refer measures to the ballot.
State coalitions hold regular donor briefings. If you are interested in a specific state, please do not hesitate to reach out and I can connect you to the team.
The Fairness Project is a national nonprofit that exists to win ballot measures that benefit working families in red and purple states by providing hands-on expertise, technical assistance, and direct funding to local coalitions as they incubate, qualify, and win ballot measure campaigns. Following the Dobbs decision, the Fairness Project launched the Abortion Ballot Measure Fund (ABMF) to support and invest in 2023-2024 ballot measure efforts that restore or protect abortion rights where they are threatened. This funding need is urgent.
The ABMF is a one-stop way for donors to invest in these state-based efforts at all stages of their development. The Fairness Project’s team is working hand-in-hand with local coalitions still figuring out whether a ballot measure is winnable in their state in 2024, providing or funding expert legal vetting, polling, and project management of broad, inclusive coalitions.
If you are interested in investing in the ABMF, contact Dan Sorenson at dan@thefairnessproject.org or donate here.
The Gender Equity Action Fund (GEAF) is also coordinating donor efforts at the intersection of gender, race, LGBTQ, and equity with an emphasis on state power. They are working hand in hand with many of the state abortion rights coalitions.
If you are interested in learning more about GEAF, contact Cristina Uribe at cristina.uribe@geaf.org.
As always, suggestions and comments are welcome!