Where to Give Now: July 2020
Are you freaking out yet? We have 95 days until Election Day. And we’re about to enter silly season — VP speculation, the conventions, pollercoasters, and lots and lots of late money being thrown at anything that sounds feasible.
In addition to the usual giving recommendations, I also offer some advice on all of the above along with some resources to aid your sanity.
Veep Speculation
Over the next few days, Veep speculation will reach a fever pitch. As you have (hopefully) seen, the choice is unlikely to sway many voters. But, again, in an election likely to be won on the margins, helping to solidify the base or swing some swing voters may make all the difference.
No matter whether the ultimate pick was your first or fourth choice, we all need to get on board and have her back (I love typing her). So, if someone says Kamala is “too ambitious,“ call out the sexist trope. Elizabeth Warren too liberal? Pivot to a competency message. Susan Rice = Benghazi? Note how well she handled her time under fire from every Republican in the country. Karen Bass who? She saved California’s budget, taking on the Governator himself.
We don’t have time for second-guessing and, unlike in the primary, we actually don’t have a say! So let’s all agree to roll up our sleeves for her and give a little more to show our support for only the fourth woman on a national ticket ever and perhaps the first woman of color.
Convention
I have attended every Democratic convention since 2000, wearing many different hats including superdelegate and staffer. I am extremely disappointed that I cannot go to Milwaukee with thousands of other Democrats to celebrate this moment. But I am also excited about the new virtual options and expanded ways to participate. I encourage everyone to watch as much as you can, share moments on social media, and use the big speeches as an organizing opportunity — even if just for your family. (One of my earliest memories is watching Geraldine Ferraro’s acceptance speech in 2004 and that memory helped shape my career.) Even the caucuses and business meetings can be interesting! You can watch and learn more at https:// www.demconvention.com/.
Election Month
In all the talk about voting by mail, what often gets lost is just how much longer it can take counties and states to count those votes. (This article in The Atlantic provides an excellent overview.) Some states, like New York, do not allow administrators to begin counting absentee ballots until polling locations close. This led to some 2020 primary elections taking over a month to be finalized. In Arizona in 2018, it took over a week for Kyrsten Sinema to be declared the winner in the US Senate race. Donald Trump is already using these delays to try to discredit the election.
We can help by providing accurate information to our friends and family. Start setting expectations about Election Month now. Note that every jurisdiction may have different timetables and rules (see: 2000, Florida).
Here are some helpful resources:
VoteAmerica is a 501c3, non-partisan organization with all the info you need
The non-partisan Election Protection coalition and 866-OUR-VOTE hotline is ready to answer questions
Democratic super lawyer Marc Elias’ Democracy Docket provides info about current voting-related lawsuits in non-legalese
The Brennan Center for Justice has lots of white papers filled with info about all things voting
Volunteer (or even get paid) to be a poll worker with Power to the Polls!
PollerCoaster
This wonderful term was popularized by the Pod Save America guys but has been used as far back as 1992 to refer to the up/down nature of polling and the media frenzy surrounding the release of public polls. There was a lot of post-2016 speculation about how the polls were wrong. They actually weren’t that wrong; we just forgot that the margin of error is a real thing and the Electoral College is the worst.
As we all constantly refresh FiveThirtyEight over and over, remember: polls are a snapshot in time; believe trends over time vs. one poll; margin of error, sample size, weighting, and other factors are real; and, yes, there is polling bias and it’s often in favor of whoever is doing the asking.
US Senate
The map is becoming more clear and is moving in Democrats’ favor. We still cannot take any seat for granted, nor should we write off any opportunities. There are now SIX current Republican seats in the Toss-up column and Arizona is now Lean D.
By now, you likely know about the top tier races. I encourage everyone to adopt one incumbent, one potential flip, and one long-shot race for the final stretch.
Incumbents to protect:
Doug Jones (AL) — Not a lost cause! Republican Tommy Tuberville has plenty of negatives, as he and Jeff Sessions beat each other up for months. A blue wave (or even a blue tide pool) coupled with high African-American turnout can pull Jones over.
Gary Peters (MI) — Peters is up anywhere from 4-17 points in recent polls. His opponent is well-funded and the NRSC has made a $2.1m buy here.
Tina Smith (MN) — Trump has already spent $14 million in an effort to flip Minnesota.
Jeanne Shaheen (NH) — Shaheen likely faces a self-funder and has to communicate with voters in the expensive Boston media market to win.
Potential Flips
These races are listed in rough order of “flippability.” While all have demonstrated strong fundraising, they all need additional resources as COVID has made paid communications even more crucial and we know the Republicans are coming for all of them.
AZ (Mark Kelly) — Mark Kelly, who is the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords and a former astronaut, posted a record $25m cash on hand at the end of last quarter. McSally is a feckless, unpopular candidate. Arizona will also be in play for the presidential election which should help Kelly. Lean D
CO (John Hickenlooper) — Gardner is considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper candidly won the Democratic primary. Gardner has embraced Trump whole-heartedly, despite the light blue trend in Colorado. Toss-up
ME (Sara Gideon) — Democrat Sara Gideon, the former House Speaker, is running against Susan Collins, who saw her poll numbers drop precipitously this year; she is now the least-popular Republican incumbent. Gideon is a strong candidate and Maine’s split electoral votes and competitive 2nd congressional district race will help turnout. Toss-up
NC (Cal Cunningham) — Cal Cunningham came out of his primary in a good position to take on Thom Tillis, the most unpopular incumbent in the country. As a presidential battleground with a top Governor’s race as well, Cunningham will benefit from up and down ticket momentum. Toss-up
IA (Theresa Greenfield) — Theresa Greenfield’s background as a “farm kid with farm values” and personal story lie in stark contrast with Ernst, who has become a favorite of special interests. The presidential caucus organizing in state, coupled with all four House districts being in play, also help Greenfield’s prospects. Toss-up
MT (Steve Bullock) — Steve Bullock is a popular and populist Governor who has received high marks for his handling of COVID-19. There is also a competitive Governor’s race and US House race. Toss-up
GA-A (Jon Ossoff): Jon Ossoff, a 2018 congressional candidate in the first special election post-Trump, won the primary; he has a strong fundraising base and the endorsement of his former boss, the late Rep. John Lewis. Because of Georgia’s runoff rules, it is crucial for Democrats to get 50% in the November election. Toss-up
Longer Shots
All of these races are winnable under the right circumstances. Each candidate is an excellent fit for their state and has proven adept at making their case to voters.
KS (Barbara Bollier) — Say it with me: this race is winnable even if Kris Kobach is not the nominee. While former Secretary of State and losing gubernatorial candidate Kobach is easier to beat, Rep. Roger Marshall has plenty of negatives of his own. Bollier is a doctor and a current state Senator who switched parties to become a Democrat in December 2018, citing Medicaid expansion, choice, and LGBTQ rights as her reasons. Lean R
GA-B (Raphael Warnock) — Kelly Loeffler was appointed to fill the seat for Isakson. Rep. Doug Collins, a Trump ally, is also running. This is a “jungle” election in November (meaning all of the candidates who qualify appear on one ballot) and therefore a much higher likelihood of a runoff so Democrats need to coalesce around one candidate. The DSCC has endorsed Rev. Raphael Warnock but Matt Lieberman (son of Joe) is still polling in double-digits. Lean R
AK (Al Gross) — Independent Al Gross is being supported by Democrats. Alaska has a history of electing independents and the current GOP Governor is undergoing a recall. There is huge ROI in this state where 150,000 voters decide the election. Likely R
TX (MJ Hegar) — MJ Hegar, an Air Force veteran, defeated numerous other Democrats in the primary and runoff to be the Democratic nominee. Cornyn is even more unpopular than Ted Cruz and Biden’s polling puts the state in play.
KY (Amy McGrath) — Kentucky is everyone’s favorite rage donation as we all desperately want to see Mitch McConnell out of power and out of office. Amy McGrath has been a fundraising juggernaut. But we know McConnell and his allies will pull out all the stops and Trump won this state by 30 points. Likely R
SC (Jaime Harrison) — Graham is seeking a fourth term in a state Trump carried with just 54% of the vote. Jaime Harrison, the former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party and associate chair of the DNC, raised a remarkable $14 million last quarter; he is an African-American candidate in a state with a strong black vote. Likely R
LA (Adrian Perkins) — My new favorite race! Former Army Ranger, West Point and Harvard Law grad, and Shreveport mayor Adrian Perkins just announced in July. He is a young, dynamic, African-American candidate. The November election is a jungle primary so we simply need to keep Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy to less than 50% and then focus national attention to win the runoff. Safe R (but ratings have not been updated since he announced)
Donate to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.senate.
US House
While House Democrats have significantly out-raised their Republican counterparts, there are some incumbents who will be in nail-biter races to the very end.
The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents include:
TJ Cox (CA-21)
Lucy McBath (GA-6)
Abby Finkenauer (IA-1)
Cindy Axne (IA-3)
Lauren Underwood (IL-14)
Jared Golden (ME-2)
Collin Peterson (MN-7)
Andy Kim (NJ-3)
Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2)
Max Rose (NY-11)
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
Kendra Horn (OK-5)
Joe Cunningham (SC-1)
Abigail Spanberger (VA-7)
Ben McAdams (UT-4)
We also need to hold IA-2 where Democrat Dave Loebsack is retiring; the Democratic candidate is Rita Hart.
There are as many as 20 pick-up opportunities. Strong candidates, changing suburbs, and Biden’s strong polling put many of these seats in reach.
Potential flips include:
AZ-6 (Hiral Tipirneni)
CA-25 (Christy Smith)
GA-7 (Carolyn Bourdeaux)
IL-13 (Betsy Dirksen Londrigan)
IN-5 (Christina Hale)
MI-3 (Hillary Scholten)
MN-1 (Dan Feehan)
MT-AL (Kathleen Williams)
NE-2 (Kara Eastman)
NC-8 (Patricia Timmons-Goodson)
NJ-2 (Amy Kennedy)
NY-2 (Jackie Gordon)
OH-1 (Kate Schroeder)
PA-1 (Christina Finello)
PA-10 (Eugene DePasquale)
TX-10 (Mike Siegel)
TX-21 (Wendy Davis)
TX-22 (Sri Preston Kulkarni)
TX-23 (Gina Ortiz Jones)
TX-24 (Candace Valenzuela)
TX-31 (Donna Imam)
Donate to all or some: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aladvising.house
State Legislatures
State legislatures are not only important for redistricting — they are the pipeline for many candidates and the laboratory to pass progressive or regressive legislation.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) is a national party committee that works with state legislative caucuses, targeting flippable chambers and competitive districts. Giving to the DLCC is the easy button — you know they will give to the races that need it most.
Democrats have historically ignored and under-funded these down-ballot races. But there are now many organizations working to elect Democratic candidates to state legislatures, including:
Every District — recruits Democrats to run in every state legislative district
Forward Majority — target key districts to flip chambers in AZ, FL, NC, and TX
Local Majority — provides research and communications support
Sister District — pairs a blue area with a flippable district
Swing Left — targets districts in 12 “super states”
I highly encourage you to give to these crucial races. You can support the DLCC or one of these organizations or support candidates directly in your favorite state!
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In the next memo, I will discuss ways to volunteer and how to maximize the effectiveness of your Fall donations. I welcome other suggestions!
Wear a mask. Vote for Biden.