Where To Give Now | March 2026
Democrats are in an excellent position for a blue wave in November. But blue waves do not just happen; they need to be nurtured and funded. The Democratic brand is still dismal with voters and leadership has yet to put forward a proactive agenda. But Trump’s declining poll numbers present an opportunity to reclaim power. As we saw with the primaries in Texas and North Carolina last week and with special elections since Trump 2.0, Democrats want to win and are willing to toss aside establishment candidates to do so. We need candidates who meet the moment.
I want to say a word about electability...I believe Jasmine Crockett could have won a statewide election, particularly against Ken Paxton. But women and especially women of color are rarely given the opportunity to prove their electability. This is an argument we have been having since 2016, when decades of negative attacks damaged Hillary Clinton’s credentials and character, and 2024, when Kamala Harris could not overcome a truncated timeline and Biden’s polling. Both lost narrowly and while sexism undoubtedly played a role in both, many factors outside of their control (Comey and inflation come to mind, respectively) were likely larger factors. We can just look at wins by Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger in 2025 and Angela Alsobrooks in her 2024 primary for recent examples of races where women crushed expectations. As the Elizabeth Warren campaign said in 2020, “She’s electable if you vote for her.” More of that, please.
I hope you will check out my Politic-AL Updates on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, and other social media channels. They are short videos (5-10 minutes) that I post on Fridays with the news of the week and insider political gossip. In the coming months, I will be better at integrating the Politic-AL Updates and these memos; I welcome your feedback on how to make both more helpful, informative, and engaging.
US Senate
I have been a champion for expanding the map, especially the Senate map, since 2019. At the beginning of the cycle, the map looked tough and narrow. It has expanded with excellent candidates and dynamics on the ground in certain states. The most endangered incumbent, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, dodged a messy general election when Gov. Brian Kemp declined to run. Gary Peters’ unexpected retirement in Michigan puts that seat more in play but Democrats are still favored to win. Democrats need to hold both and flip four additional seats to gain the majority.
Here’s my take on the tiering of US Senate races:
GA and MI -- Two must holds. Sen. Jon Ossoff is looking strong in Georgia with a messy Republican primary (5/19). Michigan has a three-way Democratic primary (8/4) with presumptive Republican John James having held off serious challengers. I believe Mallory McMorrow is the strongest candidate in the general as well as a special political talent. Haley Stevens past support from AIPAC is now a liability as is Abdul El-Sayed’s democratic socialist leanings. All can win in a blue wave year though.
MN and NH -- Democratic holds that look good for now but we need to keep an eye on these seats. There is a competitive primary (8/11) in Minnesota with no top-tier Republican running. Chris Pappas has cleared the field in New Hampshire and even Trump’s endorsement of John Sununu likely won’t get rid of former Sen. Scott Brown in the Republican primary (9/8). Pappas consistently outpolls both.
ME and NC -- These are Democrats top pick-up opportunities with two wildly different races. In Maine, Democrats Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills are battling it out (primary 6/9); Platner continues to show impressive fundraising and polling even after his past transgressions. Both can beat Sen. Susan Collins and I truly can’t say which candidate I think would be stronger in the general election. In North Carolina, we have a head to head with former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper vs. former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. Cooper looks good but Republicans will come at this race with everything they’ve got.
AK and OH -- Mary Peltola’s entry into the Senate race in Alaska immediately moved this to a top-tier race. She is uniquely positioned to win here and faces the unpopular Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. She will need some help from third-party and minor candidates to come out on top with ranked choice voting. Peltola won by 5,240 voters in 2022 and lost by 7,876 in 2024. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown continues to outraise the largely unknown Jon Husted, who is now in hot water for having taken campaign donations from Epstein’s primary client, Les Wexler. It is worth noting that in 2018, Brown’s last re-election when Trump was not on the ballot, Brown won by 301,960 votes; in 2024, he lost by 206,434 votes.
IA, NE, and TX -- These races present Democrats’ next best opportunities to flip seats. Iowa has been hit especially hard by Trump’s tariffs and there are competitive races up and down the ballot. Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls will face off in the primary (6/2) although momentum may be consolidating behind Turek. The last time Democrats contested Iowa, Theresa Greenfield lost in 2020 by just 59,377 votes. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is plugging along in his bid to defeat Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. The working class hero vs. the billionaire is a good argument this cycle. Osborn lost in 2024 by just 62,631 votes. Texas is the white whale of Democratic politics. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a 5/26 runoff with Paxton likely to emerge as the Republican nominee (this is still in flux as Paxton has pledged not to drop out even if Trump endorses Cornyn). James Talarico has a clear path to win but will need to energize base voters. In 2018 Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by just 149,451 votes.
FL, MS, SC -- All of these races are in the long-shot but could get interesting category. Democrat Alex Vindman announced in the Florida Senate race and has put up impressive fundraising numbers. The demographics and dynamics in Mississippi could put this state in play, particularly if there is backlash among Black voters to a likely SCOTUS decision overturning the Voting Rights Act. And Annie Andrews is a strong candidate against Trump’s favorite frenemy Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina; he also faces two primary challengers and while neither is seen as a serious threat, they may help dampen Republican enthusiasm.
As of now, they all need all the money; yes, even the well-funded races like Georgia and North Carolina will need every dime they have raised so far and then some. Candidates coming out of primaries will need significant funding immediately to win.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ussenate2026
And a plug for primary funding: The world is on fire and donating in primaries in safe Democratic seats can feel like a waste. But primaries are often our best opportunity to elect more women, people of color, and women of color. If we want a more reflective democracy, engaging in primaries is critical.
The Illinois primaries will be held on 3/17. US Senate candidate and current Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth. She lags in hard side fundraising behind Rep. Raji Krishnamoorthi, who amassed a significant warchest over multiple cycles. Stratton is our only remaining chance to add another Black woman to the US Senate. Please consider donating to her race ahead of the primary.
US House
Below is an abbreviated list of top House races while we wait on redistricting outcomes in Florida (no new maps yet), Missouri (litigation over ballot measure), and Virginia (litigation over ballot measure).
We are also waiting to see if some longer-shot races like SC-1 and TX-15 are real. I can report from the ground that CO-5 with Democrat Jessica Killin is very real. But I am waiting on additional data and word on the street before making calls on other races rated Likely R, even as the DCCC has added several to their Red to Blue list.
Similarly, while there are a handful of Lean D incumbents like Kristen McDonald Rivet and Laura Gillen that I am keeping an eye on, I am mainly focused on Toss-ups and Lean/Likely R. And I am largely ignoring primaries in Safe D seats.
Toss-up incumbents:
OH-1 Greg Landsman
OH-9 Marcy Kaptur
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez
WA-3 Marie Glusenkamp Perez
Toss-up with no/nominal primary:
AZ-6 JoAnna Mendoza
IA-1 Christina Bohannan
IA-3 Sarah Trone Garriott
PA-10 Janelle Stelson
VA-2 Elaine Luria
WI-1 Rebecca Cooke
Toss-up where I have a primary favorite:
AZ-1 Marlene Galán-Woods
CO-8 Shannon Bird
NE-2 Denise Powell
NY-17 Beth Davidson
Lean/Likely R with strong frontrunner:
CO-5 Jessica Killin
MI-4 Sean McCann
PA-8 Paige Cognetti
TX-15 Bobby Pulido
VA-1 Shannon Taylor
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/wtgn2026
Safe D where I have a favorite:
CA-6 Lauren Babb Tomlinson (a former senior staffer at Planned Parenthood Mar Monte running in a newly safe seat)
GA-13 Jasmine Clark (primarying do-nothing incumbent David Scott)
IL-4 Mayra Macias (a progressive running as an independent because incumbent Chuy Garcia decided not to run at the last possible minute, thereby insuring his Chief of Staff as the only Democrat on the ballot)
MD-6 April McClain Delaney (defending her seat against former Rep. David Trone, who spent over $62 million of his own money trying to defeat Angela Alsobrooks for Senate last cycle; seriously, fuck that guy)
TX-33 Julie Johnson (defending her seat against former Rep. Colin Allred; nope, you don’t get to come back and unseat a woman because you lost)
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/al2026
Non-Federal Races
I’ll have a lot more in the coming months on non-federal races up and down the ballot. For now, I want to highlight the states with nested races with the most bang for the buck:
AK -- Senate, Gov, US House, keep cross-partisan legislature
AZ -- Gov, AG, SOS, three US House, flip state house and state senate
GA -- Gov, AG, SOS, flip state house
MI -- Senate, Gov, AG, SOS, four US House, flip state house, keep state senate
NV -- Gov, AG, SOS, 2-3 US House
NH -- Senate, Gov, one House, flip state house and state senate
NC -- Senate, 1-2 US House, State Supreme Court, keep veto-proof minority
OH -- Senate, Gov, 2 US House, prevent supermajority in state house
PA -- Gov, 5 US House, keep state house, flip state senate
WI -- Gov, Lt Gov, 2 US House, flip state house and state senate
I am a big fan of the “adopt a state” strategy, particularly if you live in a blue state. Did your son go to college in Ohio? Wife grow up in North Carolina? Family tree go back to New Hampshire? That’s your adopt a state! The easiest way to support these nested races is through the in-state donor tables supporting c3/c3/PAC work, state Democratic parties, and directly to key candidates. Feel free to contact me for donation information.
Governors
In 2026, 36 states will hold gubernatorial and other statewide constitutional officer elections. Of those, 16 current Governors are term-limited.
Protect:
AZ -- Gov. Katie Hobbs had the narrowest victory (50.3%) of any Governor in the country and will face a highly competitive general election. Republican Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert are battling it out to take on Hobbs. The late 8/4 primary helps Hobbs and she also has a huge fundraising advantage and strong polling. But this will be a very close race as AZ moved further right of any battleground state in 2024.
MI -- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson are running in the Democratic primary after Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest decided to run for Secretary of State instead; Benson has a strong lead in both polling and fundraising. Republican Rep. John James is considered the likely Republican frontrunner but he faces numerous other MAGA candidates in the primary. The general election would be competitive in a head to head race under any circumstances but Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan left the Democratic Party to run as an independent (as polls showed he could not win the primary), making it all the more challenging for Democrats to hold the seat.
MN -- While Sen. Amy Klobuchar is a lock to win her Governor’s race, she has to start fundraising from scratch as she cannot transfer money from her Senate account. We need a strong showing from her at the top of the ticket to help retain Democrats' very narrow margins in the state legislature.
WI -- Gov. Tony Evers declined to run for a third term. Democratic candidates include former Lt. Gov and 2022 Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Rep. Francesca Hong, the former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Missy Hughes, former State Rep. Brett Hulsey, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, and State Sen. Kelda Roys. Republicans include Bill Berrien, Josh Schoemann, and Tom Tiffany. No Democratic frontrunner has emerged although Barnes has the highest name ED. This will be a very competitive general election.
Incumbents Kathy Hochul (NY), Tina Kotek (OR), and Josh Shapiro, who are well-positioned to win but we are keeping an eye on their races. Democrats are favored to keep CA (open), CO (open), ME (open), MA (incumbent Maura Healey), MN (open, Amy Klobuchar), and NM (open). Kansas is likely to flip to Republicans.
Potential flips:
AK -- Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and State Senator Click Bishop have declared on the Republican side, along with a host of other candidates including Shelley Hughes, Bernadette Wilson, Matt Heilaga, Adam Crum, Treg Taylor, and Dave Bronson. Former Senate President Tom Begich, state sen. Matt Claman, and former state rep. and activist Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins have declared as Democrats. Alaska currently has a cross-partisan governing coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans in charge of both chambers of the legislature. Ranked choice voting makes these races unpredictable.
GA -- This race will feature competitive primaries on both sides and a competitive general election. Democratic candidates include former Atlanta Mayor and Biden Administration official Keisha Lance Bottoms, Pastor Olu Brown, former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, State Sen. Jason Esteves, and former Georgia Labor Secretary Michael Thurmond. On the Republican side, Attorney General Chris Carr and former football coach Derek Dooley are in a proxy war between President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp along with Trump foe Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger.
IA -- Kim Reynolds declined to run for a third term, making this an open seat. Republican candidates include Brenna Bird, Randy Feenstra, Zach Lahn, Brad Sherman, and Adam Steen. State Auditor Rob Sand has cleared the Democratic field and is seen as a strong contender, with high approval ratings and having outraised the entire Republican field combined.
NV -- Nevada was the only state to flip from blue to red in 2022 (mainly due to COVID-related closures and the impact on the economy). Attorney General Aaron Ford is the frontrunner to take on Gov. Lombardo.
OH -- Amy Acton is the Democratic candidate. She is a physician who was appointed to Gov. DeWine’s Cabinet as Director of the Ohio Department of Health, including during COVID. Former presidential candidate and Trump acolyte Vivek Ramaswamy has cleared the field on the Republican side. Several recent polls show Acton within the margin of error as Ramaswamy is deeply unpopular. But he has amassed a huge warchest.
NE, NH, and TX could get interesting but it’s too early to tell yet.
Other key races include Attorney General, Secretary of State, state Supreme Court, and targeted legislative chambers. Specific recommendations will follow in future memos.
Give to any or all: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2026nonfederal
I also recommend giving to the party committees and other entities engaging in these races across the board: the Democratic Attorneys General Association, Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, and Justice Project (for state supreme court work).
The Wisconsin State Supreme Court race (yes, another one!) will take place on April 7. Progressive candidate Chris Taylor needs additional funding to secure her 10-year term and retain the progressive majority on a critical court.
Give to Chris Taylor’s campaign: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/christaylorforjustice?refcode=website-header
Protect Democracy
Many organizations continue to do excellent work to push back against the Trump Administration, particularly through litigation and mass mobilization. There is also a lot of overlap between mass mobilizations and electoral organizing. The successful anti-ICE protests over the last few months have demonstrated that organized resistance works. Trump’s brazen efforts to meddle in the midterm elections are extremely worrisome but groups are coordinated and prepared for what’s to come.
The next round of No Kings protests will take place on March 28. Indivisible is doing incredible work, largely behind the scenes, of organizing these important protests along with other important work. I hope you will support Indivisible’s crucial work.
Thanks, and again, feedback is always welcome!